Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-30 2.398525 2.529121 2.669679 2.833473 3.020800 3.230523 3.486306
2025-04-06 2.169950 2.338542 2.529323 2.765048 3.054378 3.406771 3.884323
2025-04-13 2.026195 2.215251 2.436561 2.721628 3.090719 3.572217 4.289668
2025-04-20 1.956495 2.166558 2.420113 2.759789 3.223538 3.874338 4.958397
2025-04-27 1.919764 2.151334 2.439093 2.839789 3.417788 4.297820 5.984547
2025-05-04 1.859274 2.100184 2.405506 2.842333 3.498377 4.563240 6.875669
2025-05-11 1.807544 2.055723 2.375679 2.844599 3.575521 4.838571 7.988083
2025-05-18 1.738296 1.984179 2.304105 2.779211 3.535451 4.891430 8.594587
2025-05-25 1.694194 1.943034 2.270735 2.766011 3.577167 5.109920 9.945439
2025-06-01 1.652455 1.902738 2.235723 2.746646 3.604749 5.306738 11.568410
2025-06-08 1.613033 1.863636 2.199961 2.722791 3.620634 5.482882 13.566982
2025-06-15 1.596590 1.854553 2.205601 2.763012 3.756411 5.986244 20.153001
2025-06-22 1.550726 1.804702 2.152043 2.707806 3.711959 6.036350 24.065195
2025-06-29 1.505335 1.754166 2.095632 2.644906 3.646929 6.018224 27.901573
2025-07-06 1.469442 1.715573 2.055009 2.605262 3.623409 6.114783 38.522676
2025-07-13 1.456536 1.708235 2.059526 2.639895 3.752611 6.727768 NaN
2025-07-20 1.454219 1.715386 2.085524 2.712407 3.973895 7.830281 NaN
2025-07-27 1.434231 1.696712 2.071605 2.714707 4.042613 8.435280 NaN
2025-08-03 1.415369 1.678958 2.058201 2.716757 4.111298 9.125610 NaN
2025-08-10 1.382941 1.640848 2.012134 2.657509 4.026960 8.986263 NaN
2025-08-17 1.363190 1.620481 1.992780 2.645529 4.056105 9.508397 NaN
2025-08-24 1.343132 1.599117 1.971088 2.627944 4.069320 9.974439 NaN
2025-08-31 1.323094 1.577270 1.947895 2.606263 4.069673 10.382055 NaN